I own 70 shares, used to own 100 or so but sold some to take advantage of the end of the fifo rule.  This is a play on the chinese growth story.  Their gdp growth is amazing, and they have a lot of growth before they could catch up to us.  Unlikely that they could catch up to us.  Selling at 253.  I think that my position is at about 240.   Cap is at 87b.  P/E is at 33.  PEG is at 1.34.  Analysts are bearish.  SHort interest is at something like 4%.  Not quite at my 5% threshold.  Earnings growth this year is not predicted to be great.  Forward EPS is great though. Book value growth is great.  REturn on equity is at 18.48.  Debt is moderate.

 

 

ScotiaBank-Own 103+ shares in Roth IRA with DRIP.  Cap is 79.2.  Yield is 3.85.  BV is at Growth is pretty tepid at 8ish.  Good return on equity at 19.  Debt is modestish.  Book is at 40ish per share.  The stock is a good buy at 60 probably.  Currently selling at 65.81.  And I have my shares at an average of 58.89.  This stock is a hold in my opinion.  Especially in the retirement account.  Good solid stock.  Not GREAT.  But good.  IMHO.

BAC-Cap is at 319 now.  Warren has a big stake.  Going to have a crazy 4th quarter ’17 earnings report.  P/E is at 17.  Yield is at 1.54. Analysts are bullish.  Big time eps projections.  Book is at 26/share.  Margins are great.  They have some debt and return on equity is lowish, but I think they are primed to grow.  Hold buy on dips unless something huge happens.

BRK.B-HOLD.

C-p/e is at 14.  Cap is at 203.  BV is at 86/s75hare p/b is estimated at about 1.  Earnings are projected to be good going forward.  Buybacks dividends coming along.  Return on equity is the question.  I’m slightly worried about this one time hit to earnings that citi is going to announce very soon.  Analysts are neutral ish. I really think this is an undervalued bank.  I’ll continue to buy Citi.  It’s a good play.

V & MA-love em.  Buy em.  Big beneficiaries of tax reform.  Better plays than PM for dividends in the future.  The risk is regulation/litigation/blockchain I guess.  Visa probably better than ma.

Applied Materials Inc.  Selling at 53.45.  I suppose the risk is that semiconductors are cyclical and supply is currently stockpiled and thus we could experience a big comedown.  I think that the supplier to the semiconductor is probably less exposed to the cyclical nature of the business.  Cap is 56.  P/E is 16.86.  Div yield is .75.  PEG is .95.  Nothing crazy happening with insiders.  Book value is at 882.  P/B is at 6.74.  EPS growth is at 8.44.  FOrward EPS is at 17.68.  Book value per share is at 5.26.  RoE is at 40.44.  Debt is at 56% of equity.  Assuming a RoE of 35, which is reasonableish given their low book value and given their top line growth projections, this is a nice business.  Does the semiconductor supplier business get sidetracked?  How do we feel?   I have 350 shares at 52.9.  I will buy more if we get to 50.

Facebook.  Just bought 50 shares at 179.64 after the fall yesterday when zuckerberg stated they would be changing the facebook experience.  I view this like the changes google periodically makes.  Facebook just shouldn’t announce these things….but I took this as an opportunity to buy.  Selling at 179.37.  CAp is 521.  I value facebook at 1,000. per user, and I think facebook estimates that it makes 5$ per user per year.  Analysts are still bullish after its runup.  Growth is essentially off the charts.  P/B is at 8 with book value of 25.  Book value growth is hugh at almost 70%.  Return on equity is at 24.  No debt.  So this is a growth play.  Will facebook continue to grow?  Will their lunch get eaten by someone else?  My thought is that facebook advertisements are cheap and they will continue to increase in price sans recession.  There is an element of funny money here though.  P/E is at 34.76.  Still, google might be the better company.

Just sold some philip morris usa btw.  I can’t see a reason to think it’s really going to grow.  Seems like a speculative play on marijuana and this iqos machine.

ACN.  One of my favorites.  Selling at 160.11, and first bought in at 120.  Cap is 102b.  P/E is at 28.34.  Div yield is 1.66.  P/B is at 14.79.   EPS growth is pegged at 8.53.  Long term at 9.90.  I think this company knows how to manage their earnings.  P/B increase is at 1664.  Free cash flow is at 4.43 billion per year.  RoE is at 41.71 per year.  No real debt.  These guys usually beat earnings.  These guys also steadily grow their eps.  If we do a steady rate of return on their book value, we get a buy price at 107.  I’ll hold.

I have positions in:

*Berkshire Hathaway*–Never Sold a Share of Berkshire

Selling at 177.  P/E Ratio is at 20.17.  Analysts are meh.  Book is at 121.88/share or 1.54 with the p/b.  Progjected EPS growth is at 14%.  Book growth is at 11.4.  Return on equity is at 7.61.  Rating: Hold.  Estimated Rate of Return: 11%.

Costco

Selling at 158. P/E Ratio is at 27.69 TTM.  Return on Equity is at 22%.  P/B is at 6.  EPS growth is at 10.46.  Return on equity is at 21.89.  DEbt is at 30%.  Payout ratio is at 34.2.  I feel like costco is a low margin business that is sort of growing in a very competitive and very saturated market.  I don’t see Costco stores closing anytime soon, but if Amazon announces they’ll deliver bulk, Costco is doomed.  If anyone does anything, Costco is in trouble.  I made a little money.  But I am not seeing why I should expect huge growth.  I see stagnation.  Sell, sold.

Williams Sonoma–Selling at 44.07.  P/B is at 3.27.  earnings growth pegged at 7.2.  Free cash flow is at 349m.  Margins are ok.  TTM ROE: 25.59.  no debt.  We’d be looking at 11.44 Rate of Return over 10.  I think there are a lot of ifs here though.  Hold.

Bank of America–P/E is at 14.  P/B is at .97.  Forward EPS growth is 12.  Projected EPS this year is at 20%.  Book is growing.  Margins are huge.  Return on equity is low, at like 8%.  How could this not grow at 10%.  Hold.

Bank of Nova Scotia-P/E is at 9.69.  Book is at 35.38.  Growth is not projecting out too well.  Return on equity is good because they don’t carry all that capital.  I don’t see how this is better than Citigroup.  Sell.

*Citigroup*–Selling at 66.58.  P/E is 13.26.  Div is at 1.92.  Book value is at 84.42.  P/B is .88.  FOrward EPS growth is 14.37.  Next 3-5 years is at 10.2.  Book value is GROWING.  Free cash flow is at 8.33b.  RoE is at a meager 7%.  Debt to assets is at 25.  Debt to equity is at 97%.  This is the stock to own for the foreseeable future.  BUY.  Payout ratio is at 25%.

Google–GOOGL-Selling at 926.  P/E is at 33.62.  Book is at 214.  Cap is at 641b.  EPS Growth is HUGE like 30.88 this year and 20 next 3-5.  Book growth is at 20?  Free cash flow is at 25b.  Return on equity is at like 14.  Minimal debt.  The risk here is government regulation/antitrust.  Lately they’ve been in the news for antitrust, fines, paying phone providers to use their search.  It’s a good business.  I don’t see why it would tank without regulation and/or iphone dropping google as default search.  Nobody can compete with google for search, not for the foreseeable future.  But there is something about their brand that doesn’t lend it’s self to consumer devices and/or cars like apple does.  BUY.

US Bank–CAp is 86b.  P/E is at 15.52.  Dividend yield is at 2.17.  BOok is at 29ish.  EPS growth is at like 10.5 with 6.21 in the future.  Free cash flow is at 7.43.  Margins are high, so high.  That’s a bank for you.  Return on equity is high for a bank, mostly because they don’t have that much equity!  Debt is similar to C.  This is a hold.  I like the banks.  Payout ratio is at 33.73

Visa-Market cap is at 234b.  P/E is at 38.  Book value is at 13.95.  Afterall, they are a tech company, not strictly a financial service company.  EPS is at 16.62.  FOrward EPS is at 17.  Free cash flow is at 8.24b.  Return on equity is at 25.  Debt/Equity is at 55.  Debt to assets is at 25.  It’s a good company to own.  They are pretty mature though.  Wish I was in on the ground floor.  Buy on pull backs.  Anything under 100 is good.  Payout is at 24.  No debt with visa as opposed to discover.

Accenture-Cap is at 79b.  Book is at 13.22, with p/b of 10.16.  Projected growth of 10%.  Book growth is at 15.  Payout ratio is at 43.  RoE is at a whopping 47%, but this is a factor of them not having any equity in the business.  No debt though.  It’s a nice lean company.  The company is a buy or at least a hold.

Chipotle–Cap is 8.9b.  P/E is at 66.  Book is at 51 and p/b is at 6.28.  Projected EPS growth is considerable.  Margins are pretty low.  RoE is depressed.  I buy their growth story.  No debt.  I buy at this price.  The market is crazy with chipotle right now.  I buy.

Discover–been getting my clock cleaned with discover lately.  The risk is these chargeoffs/delinquency rates.  P/E is at a measly 10.26.  Dividend is at 2.36.   Book is at 30.  Cap is only 22b.  EPS growth is 11.  Book growth is at 3.15.  Margins are great at 0.  RoE is at 21.  Debt to equity is high: credit cards.  Payout ratio is at 24%.  This is a good stock to own.  Debt is a bit risky with chargoff’s but it’s a good stock.  This is a buy

HanesBrands-P/E is at 15.48.  Dividend is at 2.55%.  Cap is at a mere 8.58b.  Book is at 3.  EPS growth is pretty modest at 8.54…less chance of a miss.  Next 3-5 is at 11.  Book growth is at 13. Free cash flow is at 700m.  Margins are at 14.71.  RoE is at 51%.  Debt is the problem here: 331% equity with payout on the div at 40%.  Leverage is the problem.  It’s gonna be a rocky road with this stock, but it will be profitable, maybe very profitable, as long as they can pay their debt.  They are still a buy.  This is a good company.  I’m glad I own it.

Middleby-P/E is at 21.77.  Cap is at 6.7b.  Book is at 25 p/b is at 5.  EPS growth is at 10.7 and 7.6 for next 3-5.  Book growth is at 20%.  Margins are tightish: at 20.86.  RoE is at 23%.  Long term debt is at 57%. Current ratio is at 1.8.  The problem is that their growth allegedly comes from acquisitions, not organic growth.  The thought is that as millenials gravitate towards eating out even more, restaurant industry will increase capacity.  I love the company and it’s CEO.  He’s personally all in.  His conference calls are hilarious: how could anyone love kitchen appliances like this guy.  I think they have a tollbridge when it comes to these appliacnes.  Its the quality.  It’s the warranty.  It’s the innovation.  Can’t really go wrong, but it’s a hold for now.

Synchrony-Cap is at 24.  Book is at 18.  P/B is at 1.72.  Projected EPS growth is at 24%.  Book is at 25.38.  Return on equity is at 15.3.  Long term debt is at 135%.  Dude this company is obviously so awesome.  BUY.  The risk is delinquency and charge offs, but with Buffett taking a position, it’s pretty god damned solid.  Good for 12.  It’s a buy.

Under Armour–P/E is now at 35.  Cap is meager at 7.55b.  Book is at 4.59/share.  Growth is pegged at 18.42.  Book growth is at 26.  Debt is at 40%.  I buy the story.  I hold the stock, and I buy the stock.

Wells Fargo–Cap is at 256.  P/E is at 12.73.  Dividend yield is at 3.2.  Book value is at 41.32.  Growth is at 6.47 and then at 7.84 for next 3-5.  Book growth is at 6.36.  RoE is at 11.48.  Debt to equity is at 140.  I just don’t see why Wells would be as good as city to own.

Mastercard–BUY.  Cap is at 139.  EPS growth is at 16.  Book is at 5.48.  Return on equity is at 75%.  Debt to equity is at 81. Current ratio is at 1.74.  I’d like to buy some mastercard.

Balchem–P/E is at 38.  Book is at 17.6.  EPS growth is at 11.69  RoE is at 11.58.   I just don’t see why to buy them right now.  IF they dropped to 70, I’d back the truck up

My goal is to clean up these holdings, consolidate and to prime for future growth.  The idea is to retain good businesses so that they can compound.  But who still meet’s my stringent criteria?

Robert Half-Cap is at 6.1b.  P/e is at 18.9.  Dividend yield is at 2%.  P/b is at 5.69.  EPS this year is at 9%.  Book value growth is at 6.3.   Return on equity is at 31%.  Payout ratio is at 36.23.  It’s about their future growth.  They’ve grown their earnings a lot since 2009.   It is not a bad business.

ACN-ACCENTURE-Selling at 123.68.    P/E is at 21.81.  Dividend yield is at 1.97%.  Analysts are very bullish.  p/b is really low.  Book value growth is at 14%.  Projected Growth is in the 10% range.  Return on equity is really low, and debt is about nil.

They run a tight operation.  I like owning them.

EBIX-Sells for 53.9.  Dividend is at .56%.  P/E is at 17.81.  Cap is at 1.7b.  Analysts are bullish.  P/B is at 4. Earnings growth are projected at 10%.   Return on equity is at 23.25.  Debt is at 61% lt.  Insiders mostly sell whenever they can.  They just don’t seem to have a moat.  Decent stock.

Disney-Selling for 106.  P/E is at 18.  Dividend is at 1.48.  .78/share.  Analysts are high neutral.  Book is at 27.37.  Earnings growth is projected at 10-13% clip.  Book not really growing.  They have 40% debt.  Return on equity is good.  Hard to see them growing growing growing.

Middleby: One of my favorites. Currently selling at 123.01.  I just bought some at 122.  Bought a bunch at 80.  Been a good investment.  52 week low is 108.  p?e is at 23.11.  Cap is at 7b. Analysts are neutral to negative.  Book per share is at 23 and thus p/b is at 5.3   Forward earnings is at 10ish.  Book value growth is at 20ish. Return on equity is at 23%ish.  Debt is at 27%.  The market is kind of limp on this stock.  Good insider ownership.  They sell every once in a while.  They acquire too. People need appliances.  The food industry needs kitchen stuff.  I suppose the problem is: can they keep growing.

Today, they just made deals to acquire 2 new companies.  Their p/b is not great, and they are using the last of the cheap debt.  I like this company.  They are really pumping.  I’m just gonna keep buying Middleby.

JPM-Currently selling at 86.86.  Dividend yield is 2.3%.  Cap is 308b.  P/E is 13.42.  Analysts are bullish.  EPS growth at 13.66.  Book growth is at 5.35.   Book value is 72.2.  Return on equity is 10.53%.  Debt is at 20%.  I think they are good for say 10% return year after year.

USB-Selling for 50.77.  P/E is at 15.7.  Book value is 28.25/share.  EPS grown at say 10%. Return on equity is at about 14%.  Debt is at about 11.43. Dividend yield is at about 1 per share or 2.21%.  I’d say good for about 14% year after year growth.

BRK–Selling at 167.22.  P/E is at 18.54.  Book value is at 118/share or 1.51 p/b.  Book value growth per share is at 11.41%.  EPS growth is at 10%.  Return on equity is at 8.14%.  Good steady stock.  Will have a tough time beating the dow.

I have holdings in the following securities:

-JPMorgan Chase

-US Bancorp

-Berkshire Hathaway B

-ACN Accenture

-BAC

-Citibank

-Discover

-Hanesbrands

-Middleby

-Robert Half

-UnderArmour

-Visa

-Hexcel

-BNS

-Google

-SYF

-Balchem

-Mastercard

There is a lot of turmoil in politics today.  This bull market has been going on for a long time.  Some say the consumer credit cycle is turning bad.  Quantitative easing is becoming more difficult.  There is a lot of cash on the sidelines.  If tax reform comes into effect, I see the financials doing quite well.  What will be the cause of the next big financial meltdown?  I don’t know: political fallout?; oil?; terrorism?; war?; self driving cars?

Nobody can predict what the next big thing will be.  So it’s that critical question?  Does one keep their money on the sidelines waiting for a crash?  Or does one keep their money invested?

I want to take a good look at these stocks and predict their returns over the next 10 years.

 

 

 

Middleby Corp.  Trading at 134.68.  No div.  P/E is at 25.55.  5.7% short. Book value is 23/share.

 

Forward EPS growth 15ish.  This coming year.  11.69%.  Book value growth at 25.92.  Return on equity is at 23.  Debt at 27% of assets which includes a bunch of goodwill.

It’s a growth company.  Doesn’t have a ton of book.  Just never know if it will continue growing at this clip.  I don’t like that Bassoul moved to TX.